In a new report in the journal, Science Advances, a U.S.-Norwegian team developed what they call a “realistic age-structured (RAS) mathematical model” (yes, I have no idea what that is either but certainly sounds good) to analyze the likely future course of this pandemic, specifically what is likely to happen to the coronavirus over time.
And this model has come up with a pretty rosy scenario.
So, this model has concluded that “within the next few years, the SARS-CoV-2 virus(will) become endemic in the global population, (and) COVID-19 may behave like other common-cold coronaviruses, affecting mostly young children who have not yet been vaccinated”.
And most important, I think, this model predicts that since “COVID-19 severity is generally lower among children, the overall burden from this disease is expected to decline”.
But predictions are tricky things, no matter how good you think your predicting model is, as anyone who follows the Vancouver Canucks will be quick to confirm since every fall, some predictors claim the Canucks will make the play-offs (predicting a Stanley Cup victory would make you eligible for admission to a psych ward), and nearly every spring as far back as we can go, the Canucks are one of the first teams to get their golf clubs out of storage.
Still, one can always hope: This year will be different.